Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 190813
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  48  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  47  68  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   71  42  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  43  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  45  63  43 /  70  50  10   0
MKO   72  44  66  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  45  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  46  66  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  48  69  44 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.