Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 232346
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS TAF AREA. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIAL THUNDER FRIDAY NOTED WITH PROB30 AFTER
18Z HOWEVER UNCERTAIN WITH TIMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE SPREAD IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH NW AR (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S) FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WHILE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK WHERE NEAR
60F. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT ACROSS TX LIFTS NORTH AS WELL...AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AS
FORECAST REASONING SPELLED OUT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX
AND INTO SERN OK. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE BULK OF ERN
OK/NWRN AR MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED...THUS REDUCING THE OVERALL
CHANCES OF DRYLINE CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. 12Z OPERATIONAL NAM HINTS AT ISOLATED DRYLINE STORMS BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NE OK...ALTHOUGH HAVE NOTED THAT THE LATEST 4KM
NAM FAILS TO DEVELOP DRYLINE STORMS INTO OK.

THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FORECAST SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ARE HIGHLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS...SO IF ANY STORM CAN GET GOING IT
WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS AND
FORECASTS GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY AND WARM
SATURDAY IN STORE WITH WESTERLY WINDS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR NE OK/NW AR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TAKING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK...MOVING FROM NM ON MONDAY EASTWARD ALONG THE RED
RIVER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MOSTLY SOUTH INTO TX. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY NIGHT
BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER
LOW NEARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  58  84 /  50  30  40  10
FSM   53  74  61  85 /  50  50  40  10
MLC   61  76  62  85 /  50  50  40  10
BVO   52  78  57  82 /  50  40  40  10
FYV   50  70  58  79 /  60  50  40  10
BYV   49  70  59  80 /  60  50  40  10
MKO   55  73  58  83 /  50  40  40  10
MIO   52  73  58  80 /  60  50  30  10
F10   59  77  59  84 /  50  40  40  10
HHW   61  77  64  85 /  50  60  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...21





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