Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 151501
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1001 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH DRIZZLE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA ALSO GRADUALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING. MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE POPS WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING TO INCLUDE A DRY
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF A WARMUP. HIGHS
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONDITIONS ARE OR WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SITES...ESPECIALLY KMLC...MAY BECOME VFR FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AND PROVIDES A SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE RECENT UNSETTLED
WEATHER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY AREAS AS A
RESULT...BUT MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS NW ARKANSAS.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND FOR AT LEAST MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF
LOW BRINGS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH
AT LEAST A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S OR EVEN NEAR 80 AND RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AT LEAST.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY
DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22





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