Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 240758
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
258 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING DOWN IN TEXAS...IN THE WARM CONVEYOR OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXPAND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD
THE MIDDAY HOURS. HOW THIS MORNING CONVECTIVE FORECAST PLAYS OUT
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AIRMASS RECOVERY IS NEEDED FOR THE
AFTERNOON STORMS. AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SUNFLOWER STATE INTO
MISSOURI. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81
CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON. LIFT FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD AID IN
BREAKING THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR STORMS TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MORNING
CONVECTION WILL DELAY DESTABILIZATION AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THUS STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS
THEY MOVE EAST. THE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER...WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY WILL OCCUR...WITH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FORECAST AROUND
2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT THRU A
DEEP LAYER INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS...AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTATION TO THE DRYLINE...SUPERCELLS ARE THE LIKELY STORM
MODE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THIS IS ONE OF
THOSE CONDITIONAL DAYS YOU GET IN THE SPRING...MANY QUESTIONS TO
BE ANSWERED...BUT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER RIGHT...IT COULD BE BAD.
THE THREAT WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE BEST
FLOW ALOFT STAYING TO THE SOUTH OVER TEXAS. IN ADDITION...THE WARM
SECTOR WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY MONDAY...WITH OUR
AREA IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THE STORM. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...I`M
NOT EXPECTING THIS STORM TO BE A BIG DEAL FOR US SEVERE WEATHER
WISE. SOME DECENT RAINS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS HOWEVER. THE RAINS COME TO AN END
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK IN
A NW FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  60  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
FSM   73  62  88  57 /  80  50  10  10
MLC   75  61  86  55 /  80  40   0  10
BVO   77  58  85  52 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   70  59  80  52 /  80  30  10  10
BYV   69  60  79  52 /  70  30  10  10
MKO   73  60  85  54 /  80  30  10  10
MIO   73  60  81  51 /  50  20  10  10
F10   76  59  85  55 /  60  40  10  10
HHW   76  63  87  55 /  80  50   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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