Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220254
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
954 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR WAVE NORTH TEXAS  AND  OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION
JUST STARTING TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. 00Z WRF ALONG WITH
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF  HR^3  GROW CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT TO WEST AND PUSH IT THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
VERY LATE TONIGHT  AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  RAISED POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY BECOME
FOCUS OF  MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST BET NEAR RED RIVER.
GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT...THRU
ABOUT 09Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPTD AT THE TAF SITES IN THE 09Z TO 12Z
TIME FRAME. SOME SCT SHRA OR TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AT MOST SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMLC...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MVFR THRU THE DAY.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CENTRAL PLAINS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT...SETTLING TO NEAR THE
OK/TX BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY ACROSS SE OK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
POSE A HAIL THREAT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FESTER INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES RISING A BIT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER WRN TX LATE IN THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WORKING E AND SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK/NRN TX. OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAINLY BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST (FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING) FOR STORMS NEAR THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY AND VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP
THURSDAY FAIRLY QUIET...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AT THAT...RETURN BY
FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SIMILAR IN EJECTING AN UPPER CYCLONE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A STRONG 75+ KT MID-LEVEL JET SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. FORECAST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW
DRYLINE SURGING INTO CENTRAL OK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
CONVECTION PEELING OFF INTO ERN OK/WRN AR LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AS ECMWF/GFS ALSO SHOW SIGNIFICANT QPF EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NRN TX. THIS COULD HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON WHERE THE
WARM SECTOR SETS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
(IF ECMWF/GFS QPF VERIFIES) THAT THE WARM SECTOR MOSTLY REMAINS TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO TWEAK
THE FORECAST SO PLEASE STAY TUNED.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING VARYING TIMING
DIFFERENCE...SO HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  66  51  68 /  30  60  40  40
FSM   51  73  56  67 /  10  60  40  30
MLC   53  74  57  71 /  10  60  40  30
BVO   48  65  45  66 /  30  30  20  30
FYV   48  67  49  62 /  20  60  30  30
BYV   50  63  45  59 /  20  30  20  30
MKO   49  71  52  68 /  20  60  40  30
MIO   48  65  45  64 /  30  30  20  40
F10   54  71  54  69 /  20  70  40  30
HHW   53  75  60  73 /  10  70  60  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




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