Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220942
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
442 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA SO THE
OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES SHOULD LESSEN AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH ONLY A VERY LIMITED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STAY VERY COOL NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MAY REMAIN EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IF THE RAIN
PERSISTS TOO LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHERN TEXAS AND THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT BY THE TIME THE STORMS MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY AS OUR AREA WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL AND STABLE SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS
RATHER IFFY AT THIS POINT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING CONVECTION FROM
OUR AREA DOWN INTO THE ARKLATEX MAY INHIBIT THE NORTHWARD RETURN
OF THE TRUE WARM SECTOR UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY
EVENING. GIVEN THE PROGGED WIND FIELDS...A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MILD AND DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A RESULT...WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINGENT
ON JUST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN MOST
PLACES DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES...AND THE SAME
WILL LIKELY BE TRUE FOR FRIDAY. GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  49  64  52 /  70  50  30  50
FSM   69  52  65  50 /  60  60  30  60
MLC   67  56  66  57 /  70  60  30  60
BVO   59  46  63  50 /  60  30  30  50
FYV   60  46  60  47 /  60  60  30  60
BYV   60  44  59  46 /  50  50  20  50
MKO   59  51  64  52 /  70  60  30  60
MIO   59  45  61  50 /  50  30  20  50
F10   60  51  64  55 /  80  60  30  60
HHW   77  59  67  57 /  60  60  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





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