Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 241015
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
515 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED THIS MORNING...SIGNIFICANT AFTER 3 PM.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER 3 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL AID IN
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY
ALREADY IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR A LIMITED TO ELEVATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH ALSO A POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE AND
INSTABILITY CAN RECOVER FROM THE MORNING ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND NEAR A DRYLINE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE DRYLINE APPROACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT SUSTAIN THEMSELVES
WOULD HAVE AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TOWARD THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS OF UP TOWARD 80 MILES PER HOUR AND ALSO
A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND INSTABILITY HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF RECOVERING.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
AN ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE DRYLINE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ALSO A TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE PLAINS WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$





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