Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 181813
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
113 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
113 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...STORMS ARRIVE TONIGHT BUT BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL INITIALLY...WITH AN EVENTUAL
ORGANIZATION INTO A LINE WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST
NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL
INCREASE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FROM ROUGHLY 2 PM TILL 10 PM. THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 69 IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA OVER INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SUPERCELL
STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
EXIT THE REGION AS THE FRONT CLEARS OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE RETURN
IN A NW FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY ENHANCE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

LACY



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