Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 221752
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1252 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1252 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY CAN RECOVER FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS ROUND OF STORMS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT TO PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER NEAR THE RED RIVER WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER...WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FEATURES COME INTO FOCUS. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...INCLUDING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE MAIN SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW SIGNIFICANT AND HOW
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...AS WELL
AS QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE DUE TO AN
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THURSDAY NIGHT IN TEXAS.

AFTER A DRY WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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