Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 221320
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
820 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
820 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH LOCALLY HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN THIS REGION...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IF THESE STORMS DO INDEED MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
TODAY...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
INSTABILITY CAN RECOVER FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS ROUND OF STORMS.
AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST...ALBEIT STILL
LIMITED...SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER...WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FEATURES COME INTO FOCUS. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...INCLUDING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE MAIN SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW SIGNIFICANT AND HOW
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...AS WELL
AS QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.

AFTER A DRY WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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