Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 221012
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
512 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015



THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.


DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS
ALSO MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION AS COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
INTO A COMPLEX TO THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING. OVERALL...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...ESPECIALLY IF THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AT A QUICKER PACE.  FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY SEE A LIMITED RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM IF
THOSE LOCATIONS STAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.
STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...HOWEVER SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AS A STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER AND ATTENDANT FEATURES COME INTO
FOCUS. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE STORM CHANCES
CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE MAIN SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM MAY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. AFTER
A DRY WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$





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