Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 211035
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
535 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015



THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.


THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.


DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LACKING...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING MAY CREATE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE PASSES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT TO THE WEST...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
WILL BE MAINTAINED...IF NOT INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS A
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TRACKS TOWARDS THOSE
AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST
RISKS...WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT WARRANTING AT LEAST A LIMITED
TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOME OF THOSE STORMS WILL AGAIN CARRY A
LARGE HAIL RISK.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

EXPECTED TIMING AND RISK AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS AN DISCUSSIONS.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$





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