Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FLUS44 KTSA 211759
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1259 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER NOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS... WARM TEMPERATURES... AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A LIMITED WILDFIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM... WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED... IF NOT INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TRACKS
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
GREATEST RISKS... WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT WARRANTING AT LEAST A
LIMITED TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... AND SOME OF THOSE STORMS WILL AGAIN CARRY A
LARGE HAIL RISK.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE
AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

EXPECTED TIMING AND RISK AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.