Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 212154
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
454 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MILES AN HOUR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT CONTRIBUTE TO A LIMITED FIRE RISK EARLY THIS
EVENING. DIMINISHING WIND AND INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
DURING THE EVENING WILL END THE LIMITED FIRE THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS
THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TRACKS INTO THOSE AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISKS... WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WARRANTING AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... AND SOME OF THOSE STORMS WILL
AGAIN CARRY A LARGE HAIL RISK.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE
AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

EXPECTED TIMING AND RISK AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$





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