Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 232150
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN THE INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A STORM OR TWO
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LIMITED SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND COULD PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE INSTABILITY RECOVERS FOLLOWING THE
MORNING ROUND OF STORMS...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG A DRYLINE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PRESENT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES WOULD HAVE AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM SITUATION UNFOLDS. INTERESTED PARTIES
SHOULD KEEP TRACK OF FORECASTS FRIDAY MORNING AS EXPECTATIONS
EITHER CHANGE OR ARE REINFORCED WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

AFTER A LARGELY DRY WEEKEND...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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