Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 020114
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
814 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
814 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS EXITED
THE REGION TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND IF THEY ARE
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER MAY MOVE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WHEN THE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER...
SHOULD SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOP BY THURSDAY EVENING...
THEN TORNADIC STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON FRIDAY.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$





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