Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 312332
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26






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