Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 270507
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN...AND SOME SNOW.
VFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE SD PLAINS EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING KRAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST MONDAY WITH CONDS TRENDING MVFR THEN VFR ALL PLACES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC


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