Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 011736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MARTIN





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