Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 190419
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1119 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY... BUT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SINCE SUNSET. THE
HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL AND IT SHOWS
THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHEAST AND ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65 BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO RAISE RAIN
CHANCES MOST AREAS. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING HAS SHOWN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE RAIN IS HERE...BUT THE CIGS ARE BEING STUBBORN IN
LOWERING...SO DELAYED A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE DROP TO IFR. MODELS
STILL TRY TO INCREASE THE OVERALL LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ALABAMA WITH THE WARM FRONT...SO LEFT IN VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SLOW CLEARING DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AND LIFT SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THIS IS TOO LOW. THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ALSO REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS CYCLE AND DID
NOT INCLUDE AT ANY SITE.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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