Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 012340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DAYTIME CU FIELD THINNING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR LATER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUD BEGIN TO REEMERGE...TRAPPED UNDER
INVERSION CURRENTLY AROUND 1500 FEET. LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD SETTLE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500...WITH BRIEF LOWERING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
DOWN TO 500 TO 700. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING STAGE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEAVING A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...
AND A RATHER TRANQUIL SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL CONTINUE...ENSURING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY DAY
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY BY NIGHT...AND WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WITH PATCHY
SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG MOVING ASHORE FROM OVER COOLER GULF WATERS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY AT SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND.

THURSDAY...MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND COUPLES WITH LOWER
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPS NEAR 70 AS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AGAIN NEAR THE COAST. THE PLAINS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A STRONG SHORT WAVE
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE
EXITS TO THE EAST PRETTY QUICKLY WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 500 MB
RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A DRIER MORE
SUBSIDENT FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS TO CONTINUE INTO TUES AND WED. ANOTHER
500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA POSSIBLY INCREASING THE CONV POTENTIAL LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF 500 MB FIELDS SHOW PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WED IN THE HANDLING OF THE BROADER SYNOPTIC
FLOW PATTERN. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS
AND POPS ARE PRETTY STABLE. SO WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO A LONGER
RANGE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS AND POPS. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT AND SUN WHERE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CONV POTENTIAL PREVAILS WITH THE
NEXT FROPA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST
WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO MAINTAIN
MDT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS INTO
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS
BUMP UP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS...PLUS SOME SWELL FROM FARTHER
OFFSHORE MAY ADD A FOOT OR SO TO SEAS PUSHING THEM INTO THE 4 TO 6
FEET RANGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE LONGER
RANGE MARINE FORECAST PERIODS REMAINS THE FROPA EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA
WILL LIKELY PUSH CONDITIONS UP NEAR OR INTO SCA LEVELS FOR MUCH
OF THE LOWER TX MARINE AREAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE
BRIEF INTRUSION OF THIS COLD FRONT MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER
THE GULF OF MEX WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE E-SE FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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