Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 262001
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
401 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. TWO DISTINCT VORT LOVES WILL ROUND THE
UPPER LOW...ONE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NW OHIO LATE THIS EVENING AND
THE OTHER PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO ON MONDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE BUT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE LACK OF
DIURNAL HEATING. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN NW OHIO BEFORE 06Z WITH THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE BUT THINK THESE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY. DID INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES IN NW PA WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND BE MORE EFFECTIVE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST OF SANDUSKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB A
COUPLE DEGREES AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SO EXPECTING MOSTLY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX
IN...MAINLY IN NW PA. OTHERWISE MONDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SCATTER OUT SOME WITH
TIME AS THE FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL EXPAND OVER OHIO WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY RESIDE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ALTHOUGH A LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL START NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THEN RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. A THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS. THE QPF
AMOUNTS DO NOT SEEM TO BE THAT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NORTHERLY FLOW. A WEST TO EAST UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND DURING PART OF MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT. SOME QUESTION WHETHER SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ON
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME DID NOT FORECAST ANY...IF IT DID OCCUR IT
WOULD BE MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER
NW OH AND NW PA TONIGHT. A STRONG VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH NW OH
TONIGHT AND THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LOW UNTIL LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK.

THROUGH MONDAY LAKE ERIE WILL BE IN A NORTHERLY FLOW WITH AN UPPER
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CHOPPY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING UNTIL THE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN. THE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE A NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE LAKE AND THE WAVES COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT SHOULD
CAUSE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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