Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 041126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KDRT. NOTHING REPORTED AT THE TERMINAL HOWEVER.
EXPECTING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO LEFT VCTS MENTION IN AT KDRT THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I35 TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON TO VFR. TS POTENTIAL AT KSAT/KSSF IS LOW
BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EARLY MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS CONVECTION ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SOME LIGHT ECHOES CAN BE SEEN MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. A WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW SCANS
DO SHOW SOME ECHOES ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN VAL VERDE
COUNTY. GIVEN ONGOING TRENDS AND A SHARPENING 700-500MB THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS...WE WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO...MAINLY ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY...CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT AND WE WILL MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. ELSEWHERE...WE COULD SEE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
I-35 CORRIDOR. SUSPECT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET CONVECTION
GOING GENERALLY EAST OF A BURNET TO CUERO LINE GIVEN DRIER AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED AS A MID- LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. SIMILAR TO TODAY...A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
APPEARS TO STRENGTHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S MODEL DATA.
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WITH THE FAVORED LOCATION REMAINING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS
MID-LEVEL CAPPING ALONG WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  66  83  68  84 /  10  10  50  50  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  64  83  68  84 /  10  10  40  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  65  82  69  84 /  10  10  40  40  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  64  80  66  82 /  10  10  50  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  67  83  70  85 /  30  30  40  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  81  67  82 /  10  10  50  60  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  67  82  68  84 /  30  20  40  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  65  82  68  83 /  10  10  40  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  64  82  69  84 /  10  10  40  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  66  83  69  84 /  20  10  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  70  85 /  20  10  30  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



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