Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 060506 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL...STRATUS.

EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. WITH
LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND A 40-50KT LLJ PROVIDING
RICH GULF MOISTURE...THE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL WARM RAIN PROCESSES IN
THE AUSTIN AREA WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...PERHAPS DISRUPTING THE
INFLOW FOR ANY ACTIVITY NEAR TAF SITES. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE OVERNIGHT.

OCCASIONAL MVFR STRATUS HAS ALREADY ACCOMPANIED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMPLICATING THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
STRATUS PROCESS...THE LLJ SHOULD ASSURE MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL AGAIN
BE SLOW TO SCATTER...AND LOW VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR STRATUS WILL MAKE A QUICKER
RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND IFR CEILINGS MAY BE IN PLACE AS
EARLY AS MIDNIGHT.

WACO...
THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
WACO OVERNIGHT...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST. CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO CARRY CATEGORICAL IFR CEILINGS BUT WILL MAINTAIN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR AROUND DAYBREAK.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD...AND AT
TIMES HEAVY...RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS IS QUITE MOIST NOW...WITH
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5". A PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE
PERSISTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS-COMANCHE-LAMPASAS LINE...AND THIS
HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOIST...HIGH THETA-E AIR FEEDING
NORTHWARD PARALLEL TO THIS LINE...WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN IN MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT. SO
FAR RAIN RATES HAVE NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION
OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THIS ENTIRE
AREA...HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT IF THIS BROAD
AREA COALESCES INTO A LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA...AND INCLUDED HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PIVOTING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHERN PLAINS RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS BANDS OF CONVECTION FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL
AS ANOTHER BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION OVER EAST
TEXAS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WE EXPECT THE WESTERN
CONVECTION TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO THE CWA WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WE HAVE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT
WILL TAP INTO HIGH THETA-E AIR RIDING NORTH ON A 30-40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET...THUS SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO...ECHO TRAINING COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED HEAVY RUNOFF THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A LULL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION AT
NIGHT AND DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD STRONG
UPPER DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTHWARD ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
ACTUALLY...LOW LEVEL THETA-E...SFC TO 850MB...WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
FORMING AND MOVING OFF A DRYLINE AND INTO THE WESTERN CWA...AND A
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
PWATS CLIMB ABOVE THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION FOR EARLY MAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND SHUNT THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONAL THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 4 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  82  68  82  68 /  80  20  20  20  30
WACO, TX              67  83  69  82  69 /  70  20  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             65  79  65  80  67 /  70  30  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            66  81  67  81  68 /  80  20  30  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          66  79  67  81  68 /  70  20  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            67  81  68  82  69 /  80  20  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           67  80  68  82  68 /  50  30  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         67  81  68  82  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            67  83  69  82  69 /  70  20  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  82  67  81  67 /  80  20  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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