Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 280233 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
833 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ONLY FORECAST UPDATE TONIGHT WAS TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND SKY COVER. PATCHY FOG STILL A
POSSIBILITY WITH CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. FOG MIGHT BE
CONFINED TO LOW-LYING RIVER BOTTOM AREAS. A VERY PLEASANT NEXT FEW
DAYS EXPECTED. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONSIDERATION
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA. RECENT RAINFALL HAS ADDED PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FEATURE
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IN OTHER WORDS...FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT PRECISE
LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FOG...FOR NOW PLACED THE MENTION
WHERE IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY. THIS INCLUDES VALLEYS WHERE THE
COOLER AIR WILL POOL AND HELP TO STEEPEN MOIST INVERSIONS. IT ALSO
INCLUDES THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER REGION WHERE CLOUD COVER
PERSISTED ALLOWING FOR MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN
CONCENTRATED. FURTHER TO THE WEST THERE WAS DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING TODAY WHICH HELPED TO DRY OUT THE VERTICAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
TRANSLATING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP ENSURE A WARMING TREND IN A PRETTY DRY
PATTERN OVERALL. RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE CWA RANGING FROM +14C TO +20C FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH MID 80S POTENTIALLY
SPRINKLED IN. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL
IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF. DRY ZONAL FLOW THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. MADE ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE... THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY... THE MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

AT THIS POINT... NEXT MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITH SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION: UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR... VERY ISOLATED IFR.

FOG: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
MAINLY AFFECTING KOLF...KSDY AND KGDV.

PROTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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