Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KGYX 041626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KGYX
1226 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL MAKE THE WEATHER INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA BY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1220 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. I ADJUSTED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES AND INGESTED THE 16Z
MESONET INTO HOURLY GRIDS.


PREV DISC...
1010 AM...THIS ESTF UPDATE FEATURES ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND H85
TEMPERATURES AROUND +12C SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S OVER THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR AREAS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER DUE TO DEVELOPING SEABREEZES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MIDCOAST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND ANY QPF FROM THE SHOWERS WILL
BE LIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY MORNING. DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND MIXING A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO SUNNY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
DOWNSLOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A WEST GRADIENT WIND TO PREVENT ANY SEABREEZES
ALONG THE COAST SO THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MODELS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT PRESSING
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME HUNG UP ALONG OR NEAR THE
MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE.

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE CANADIAN
MODEL REMAINS AN OUTLIER DEPICTING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COMING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TOWARDS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS IN
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AND FOG ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO REACH MINIMUM SCA
CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME. CONDITIONS DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO FALL TO NEAR 25 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF
NH AND ME AND CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 OR 15 MPH. BOTH OF THESE CRITERIA ARE MARGINAL AND NOT
QUITE REACHING RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT DRY AIR COULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THEREFORE A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>009-
     011-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
ES



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.