Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 051012
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
312 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVED OVER NORTHERN CA AND BROUGHT MORE
INSTABILITY TO THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES TRENDED A FEW DEG COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TODAY...THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS CENTRAL
CA SO EXPECT SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER
OUR REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
EACH DAY OVER MAINLY THE SIERRA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY THURSDAY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
ALLOW A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL CA BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THU
AND FRI DUE TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA DURING THIS TIME.
DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT...MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THU
AND FRI.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND
BRING A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
BACK UPWARD DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LIKELY RETURN TO ABOUT A
FEW DEG ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...HOWEVER...REMAINS MEDIUM DUE TO SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM 19Z TUE THRU 05Z WED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-05       99:1990     57:1921     65:1989     36:1975
KFAT 05-06      100:1987     58:1921     69:1992     41:1975
KFAT 05-07      103:1987     56:1905     69:1989     36:1965

KBFL 05-05      100:1990     61:1932     69:1909     42:1930
KBFL 05-06      104:1987     55:1921     71:1989     42:1988
KBFL 05-07      101:1987     61:1930     70:1989     42:1965
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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