Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 200042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
842 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY AND
SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE ILM CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE ORIGINAL
WATCH END TIME OF 11 PM.

A NORTH TO SOUTH BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...NOW NEARLY BI-SECTS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA IN
HALF. AT THE MOMENT...THE LINE ROUGHLY EXTENDS FROM LUMBER BRIDGE
SOUTH ACROSS ORRUM...FAIR BLUFF...AYNOR TO CONWAY. THE ACTIVITY IS
BECOMES WEAKER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE WEAKER CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES IS A RESULT OF
THE SHALLOW SFC BASED MARINE LAYER HAVING PUSHED PARTIALLY INLAND
DUE TO THE SE ONSHORE FLOW THAT CROSSES THE COOLER SST SHELF
WATERS. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL BE IN A RATHER WARM AND BLUSTERY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IN BETWEEN A
DEPARTING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES STEADILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE JUST ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
0000 UTC TUESDAY. SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR AN
EVENT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HOWEVER HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT.
THE MET HAS SIX HOUR POPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE 18-00 UTC
TIME FRAME IN LBT AND ILM. THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE POPS AND FINE TUNE FOR THE TIMING FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA CITING THE
UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A NICE
TUESDAY AND PEACEFUL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY. PAIR THIS WITH ZONAL MID FLOW AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A SMALL RISE IN POPS ON THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MIDLEVEL DOWNSLOPING
PREVENTING DEEP MOISTURE. THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION
POSSIBLY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF LOW END POPS. SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES MAY MATERIALIZE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH BUT SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSES WORK TO PROVIDE LIFT ATOP SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TAPERING
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE VALID TAF WITH A COLD FRONT.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW
CIGS...PATCHY FOG...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE SHOULD ALSO NOTE A HEALTHY LOW
LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE
DEPICTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS.
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANTICIPATE SHRA/TSRA TO TAPER OFF AND
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE...WITH MVFR/IFR CONTINUING DUE TO AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CIGS. ON MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM SUNDAY...TOR WATCH 82 AFFECTS THE ILM SC WATERS THRU
11 PM. THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL
ACT TO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT REACHES AND MOVES ACROSS ALL WATERS
DURING THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING THAT AFFECT
THE ILM SC WATERS COULD PRODUCE SMW CRITERIA BRIEF GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OR POSSIBLY WATERSPOUTS. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE MWS CRITERIA WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

WINDS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL
BUILDING PHASE...WITH 3 TO 5 FT BEING COMMON DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MONDAY HOURS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 5 TO 6 SECONDS AS
WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WAVES BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...SEAS SLOWLY ON THE RISE IN THE MODERATE
ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
TSTMS ARRIVING FROM THE SW TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS...AND SEVERAL SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT WITH CLOUD TO SEA LIGHTNING POSING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD.
WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND SW OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT WAVE
GROWTH AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED ALTHOUGH AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS INITIALLY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
CLOSER FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS IN ITS
WAKE. SMOOTH SAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS TEN
KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY BRINGS NEARLY MINIMAL WIND AND SEAS
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS THOUGH LIGHT WILL VEER
CONSIDERABLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES UNTIL A S TO SW FLOW BECOMES
PREDOMINANT LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. MORE VEERING IS SLATED FOR
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND VERY SLOWLY CROSSES THE
WATERS. WITH THIS FRONT STALLING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/SGL



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