Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 060754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING
FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE.
THE 0 Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWED A STOUT CAP AT 700 MB WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. GIVEN THE STRONGER RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER 700/850 TEMPS HAVE KEPT WITH THE DRY FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALSO LOOK TO BE A TAD WARMER THAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WERE AROUND 12
DEGREES C WITH 850 TEMPS THIS MORNING FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 13.5
DEGREES. DUE TO THIS... HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S LOOKS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY EVENING AGAIN LOOKS MILD AS OHIO REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A COASTAL LOW THURSDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA HELPING TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. A
WEAK REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TRYING TO PINCH OFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOW
DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN
FRIDAY THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME SLIGHTLY MORE INTO AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND BUT
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF FROM GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO MUDDLE
THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRIES TO HEAD EAST. THE MAIN ISSUE MODELS TEND TO BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL REFLECTION
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS BULGES THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER
TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH. HOW DOES THIS AFFECT OUR AREA? WITH A WEAKER RIDGE
AXIS ON THE GFS THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND STALL.
THE EURO STALLS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE GFS/ CMC
SOLUTION IS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WHILE
THE EURO HAS BETTER FOCUS TOWARDS THE NORTH. EVENTUALLY THE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GETS PICKED UP IN BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO AND BRINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH FRONT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 1.6 TO 1.70"
FORECASTED PWATS AND DECENT OMEGA VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SCT
CIRRUS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LIFR STRATUS ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO THAT HAS BEEN SAGGING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS IN
THE 1000-975 MB RH FIELD AND IT CONTINUES TO PUSH IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO JUST NORTH OF THE COLUMBUS AREA. WILL KEEP
KCMH VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THOSE LOWER CLOUDS ADVECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER
CONCERN THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK WHERE THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS ALREADY DOWN TO 1 DEGREE. WOULD EXPECT
THEM TO SEE AT LEAST SOME IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. ANY BR WILL BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CU DEVELOPING
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL







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