Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 190936
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
236 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. WARM SOUTHERLY AIR MAY BRING A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO SOUTHERN WHITE PINE AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WHICH TRANSLATES EAST INTO NEVADA TUESDAY. MORE ON
THIS IN A MINUTE. FOR SUNDAY EXPECTING DRY AND WARM IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO OCCURRED NEAR THESE AREAS SATURDAY AND COULD OCCUR AGAIN
TODAY. POPS ARE BELOW 14 PERCENT FOR THOSE LOCALES BUT CU COULD
BUILD INTO ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THEIR SOUTHERN BORDERS. RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY FOR MORE DRY AND WARM. ON
TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AND ALLOWS SOME MINOR
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION AND HIGHER POPS. WHILE RH WILL BE
LOW...ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT AND ALLOW FOR SOME
BUILDUPS AND THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. A MAJOR CHANGE IN
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT BASIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING SOME RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES BUT
GENERALLY PING INTO THE CONCEPT OF THE RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE WEST
AND BEING REPLACED DIFFLUENT ONSHORE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS.
THIS STORM HAS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...EXPECTING THIS TO BE A
MULTIPLE DAY EVENT WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE 22ND. WITH
THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS BEING SO DRY...THE SHOWERS MAY BE SLOW TO HIT
THE GROUND...23RD AND THE 24TH WILL BE HIGHER QPF DAYS. THE GFS40 IS
PLACING 200 TO 400 J/KG OF SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE OVER LKN THE 22ND
AND 23RD...WHICH HAS A DIURNAL SIGNATURE TO IT. NCEP QPF GUIDANCE
HAS EVENT TOTAL QPF OF ONE INCH OR MORE FROM JACKPOT TO
GABBS...WHICH SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...EXPECT MILD MORNING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENSUING 24 HR
PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR KTPH
AND KELY...WOULD NOT RULE OUT STRAY TOWERING CUMULUS AND SOME
VIRGA.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97


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