Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251832
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
232 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 80% OVER WRN 2/3 OF AREA
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT DROPPED CHC TSTMS...LOWERED HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAX TEMPS WHERE RAIN OCCURRING. LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD INTO AREA
PAST FEW HOURS AND ON TRACK TO SPREAD TO COAST NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
PCPN ALL STRATIFORM AND NO CONVECTIVE THREAT UNTIL PERIOD IN WARM
SECTOR THIS EVENING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED
FORECAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DAMPEN AS IT ENTERS THE CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN US DOMINATED BY A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WHILE A LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE TODAY. TONIGHT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THIS LOW BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER THE COASTAL PLAIN, WILL INITIALLY BE INHIBITED BY
A VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME SATURATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THUS WILL RAMP UP POPS
FROM CHANCE THIS MORNING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO BISECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 70
DEGREES BUT WILL THIS BE ENOUGH TO DESTABLIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION? MODEL SURFACE BASED LI`S REMAIN ABOVE 0
SUGGESTING THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT STILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SPC
HAS PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN
THESE OUTLOOKS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE SEVERE RISK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RISK WILL OCCUR JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS MOVE THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY OFF OF THE
COAST AROUND 00Z. IMPLYING ONLY A SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER SOLUTION
WITH DRYING EXPECTED AFTER 06Z THUS WILL HOLD ON TO CATEGORICAL
(COAST) AND LIKELY (INLAND) POPS THIS EVENING AND DECREASE TO
CHANCE AFTER 06Z. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/SOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEE NATIONAL DISCUSSIONS FOR DETAILS. FOR NOW HAVE USED A BLEND OF
THE TWO. THE 2ND OF TWO SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. HAVE KEPT
POPS AT CHANCE. A DRY COUPLE OF DAYS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHERN MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MODELS THEN SPIN UP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY AND MOVE IT
NORTHEAST...TRACKING IT JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE POPS GIVING LIKELY FOR MID/LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AT 50% FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20Z. GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 00Z AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
END BY 06Z...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTERWARDS. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THE MORNING AS CEILINGS HEIGHTS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/... AS OF 4 AM SAT...SUB-VFR
FORECAST IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY. ATMOS TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDER. SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS. MON AND TUE
VFR/DRY...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY 10-15 KNOTS AND NORTH TUESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS...EAST LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...UPDATED THIS AFTN INTO EVENING FOR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SRN HALF OF WATERS. WEAK BNDRY BISECTING
WATERS E-W WITH NE TO E WINDS FOR N OF HAT WHILE SRN SECTIONS
SEEING W TO SW. SPEEDS ARE IN 10-15 KT RANGE AT DIAMOND BUOY...AND
UPDATED TOWARD 12Z NAM WITH THESE SPEEDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SW AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS JUST INLAND
AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WATERS. KEPT SEAS TO AROUND 3 FT OUTER
PORTIONS SRN WATERS THIS AFTN PER HIGHER FCST SPEEDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING
WESTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND EASTERLY
NORTH. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE COULD SEE SW WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 6 FT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 20 KT
AND SEAS AT 5 FT FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LATE
TONIGHT THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY ALL WATERS LATE
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTH WHERE A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CAUSING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
WINDS/SEAS FORECAST DEVELOP ON THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONT MOVE OFF THE
COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ON MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING SUB-SCA ONCE AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING THE FLOW NORTHERLY GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RUNNING
3-5 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND 2-4 FEET SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON WHERE
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FLOOD WARNING
ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON. MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT KINSTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/BM
MARINE...JME/JBM/HSA
HYDROLOGY...BTC/JBM


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