Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 241824
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
202 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TRACKS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT THEN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER CENTRAL U.S. DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS/SOUTHEAST U.S. LATE SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY/OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS
SOUTHEAST TO OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THEN EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AN INITIAL DRYING OF THE LOWER LAYERS AS
THE WINDS SHIFTED FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY THEN START MOISTENING UP AGAIN AS THE WINDS SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD/COOL SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
GULF COAST REGIONS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS SO A 30 TO 20
NORTH TO SOUTH RAIN CHANCE/POP SHOULD BE ENOUGH.

INTERIOR COASTAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD DUE TO ONSHORE AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS KEEPING THE COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE
INTERIOR SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE MOST RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL
ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE MID IN NORTHWEST VOLUSIA
AND LAKE COUNTIES AND THE UPPER 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTERIOR.

SUNDAY NGT...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESS SOUTH INTO FLORIDA
THERE MOISTENING WILL INCREASE SOME IN THE MID LEVEL GIVEN THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WITH BRISK WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING AS
SPEEDS AT 925MB COME UP TO 20-30 KNOTS AND 50-55 KNOTS AT 500MB.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW...NO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY AROUND
90 OR LOW 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SPC CONTINUES AN AREA OF MARGINAL RISK NORTH OF COCOA...KISSIMMEE LINE
FOR SEVERE WX WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND BRISK FLOW MAY ALLOW AND GULF
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS.

MON-THURS...UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
WEEKEND`S FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT ACROSS S FLORIDA LATE IN
THE DAY. ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS
130KT JET SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPS SPAWN AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS N FLORIDA/GA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME BROAD
SOLUTION...SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES TRANSLATE INTO LARGER DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW.

GFS HAS SWUNG BACK TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEP SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH
ACTIVITY FOCUSED TOWARDS THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR...OKEECHOBEE AND
TREASURE COAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NE PUSH THAT OCCURS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

CONSENSUS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF STILL KEEP 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUES AND WED AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TAPS INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWATS COME UP TO CLOSE TO 2". WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT A FEW BREEZY DAYS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PULLS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WED NIGHT AND FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR SCATTERED TEMPO BROKEN 040-060 AT THE COAST AS
MARINE CLOUDS START TO COME ASHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.



&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...THE NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE STILL RECORDING
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 FOOT SEAS. THIS WOULD INDICATE
THAT THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SHIFT THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. A CMAN SITE IN NORTHEAST FLAGLER COUNTY WAS REPORTING
NORTH NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH
WAS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. LOOK FOR A
WIND SHIFT EARLY EVENING THEN THE WINDS TO SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS THOUGHT. NO MARINE
HEADLINES...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS
OFFSHORE...NEEDED FOR THE TIME BEING.


SUN...WINDS VEER MORE W/SW INTO SUNDAY AS FRONT DROPS INTO NORTH
FLORIDA WITH WINDS CONTINUING 15-20KTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO
4-5 FT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS SHORTENING DUE TO THE
SHORT FETCH. BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SCATTERED STRONG
STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST QUICKLY THIS WEEKEND.

MON-WED...FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATE ON MONDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST 10-15KTS. BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK INTO REGION INTO
TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING EAST-SOUTHEAST...THEN INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED
OFFSHORE MOVING STRONG STORMS INTO MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  84  71  88 /  10  40  20  30
MCO  69  89  72  89 /  10  30  20  20
MLB  72  87  72  91 /   0  30  20  10
VRB  70  87  71  92 /   0  30  20  10
LEE  71  86  73  84 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  69  87  74  88 /  10  40  20  20
ORL  70  87  73  88 /  10  30  20  20
FPR  68  88  72  93 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER



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