Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 031911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO AHEAD OF FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WARM TEMPS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. NOT SEEING
MUCH IF ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ERN MTNS...SO WILL OPT
NOT TO CARRY ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS QUITE DRY TONIGHT GIVEN THE SUNSHINE AND WARM HIGHS TODAY...
SO NO NEED TO ADD ANY PATCHY VALLEY FOG. MOS GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN AT LEAST 1 TO 3 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR MIN TEMPS...THUS I WENT
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GFS MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS GRIDS IN LIMITING
ANY CONVECTION TO THE ERN MTNS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SPLATTERED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE PLATEAU INTO THE REMAINDER OF SW VA (WISE AND LEE
COUNTIES). CLOSELY FOLLOWED SIMILAR NAM/GFS MOS TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS DOMINANT ON TUESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND A LIGHT SW-W SURFACE WIND...WHICH
FAVORED GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE 12Z MOS GUIDANCE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE FORECAST FOR
THE LONG TERM REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN JUST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE WEEK...AGAIN
PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES. THE
SUPPRESSING ABILITIES OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP A
DRY AND WARM REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. TWEAKED
ROBO-GRIDS BACK A LITTLE TO REVEAL A MORE REALISTIC LOOK TO THE
PROBABILITIES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR A SHOWER ON THE
TERRAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POSSIBILITIES IN THE GREAT VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  83  58  82 /   0  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  80  58  81 /   0  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  82  58  82 /   0  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  80  53  81 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG


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