Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 272000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF N CENTRAL LA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE BACK OVER N
TX...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN UPPER LOW HAS
GENERATED CONVECTION...WHICH IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD. THIS
EWD MOVEMENT IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY DRIVING THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/ADJACENT NW
LA...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES. THESE AREAS GOT QUITE A BIT OF
RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL MOST LIKELY BE ENTIRELY RUNOFF.

THE UPPER LOW IS FCST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVHD...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND EFFECTIVELY ENDING THUNDER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND KEEP
SHWRS IN MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY MOVES E OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO REACH OUT OF THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...HOWEVER...AS SKIES CLEAR AND SUNSHINE
ABOUNDS. ADDITIONALLY...AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE
NOSE INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S...WHICH WILL AID THE TEMP
RECOVERY. THIS WILL REMAIN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
PD...WHICH WILL FINALLY SPELL SOME DRYING OUT FOR AREA SOILS.  /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
AND PERIODS OF IFR. CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION HAD
BECOME ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT MIDDAY. EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS POSSIBLE BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. IFR
CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL ALSO BRING VSBYS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES
AT TIMES. SURFACE WIND EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  61  47  72 /  80  60  10  10
MLU  56  62  48  69 /  80  60  20  10
DEQ  51  58  42  72 /  80  60  10  10
TXK  52  58  46  71 /  80  60  10  10
ELD  52  57  45  70 /  80  60  20  10
TYR  54  60  48  71 /  80  40  10   0
GGG  55  60  47  71 /  80  40  10  10
LFK  60  66  49  73 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



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