Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 260959
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
459 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...There is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
   and evening...

A strong upper level trough was currently over the southwest US. The
upper level flow is backing to the southwest over the Southern
Plains ahead of the trough. At the surface, rich low level moisture
(dewpoints in the 60s) over central Texas was making a return to the
north toward West Central Texas.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. some of the storms
may be severe, with more intense severe storms possible across the
eastern Big Country and Heartland. The upper level trough to our
west will begin advancing east during today. Aloft, southwest flow
will increase across our area with a mid level jet of 50 to 60
knots. At the surface, a dryline will be in place across our western
counties early this afternoon. Scattered storms will fire along the
dryline by early afternoon and rapidly move to the east-northeast
across the eastern 2/3 of our area. Also, convective high res models
indicate the possibility of storms developing across the Heartland
and Big Country out ahead of the dryline. In any matter, there
should be strong instability(MLCAPES 2000 to 3000 J/KG) and good
0-6km shear(45-50 knots) for storms to become severe. The best
chance for severe weather will be along and east of a Sweetwater to
San Angelo to Sonora line. The main hazards will be a few tornadoes,
large hail(larger than golfball size) and damaging winds.

For tonight, severe thunderstorms will still be possible this
evening across mainly across the eastern 1/3 of the area as strong
mid level ascent advances east ahead of the trough. Also, going with
likely Pops across the eastern Big Country and eastern Heartland
with chance to slight chance Pops further to west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

An upper level low will track east along the Red River Valley
Monday and Monday night. This system will send a cold front south
across the area Monday afternoon and evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and behind the cold front
on Monday, with mainly showers expected Monday night. The best
chance for rainfall will be across the Big Country in closer
proximity to the upper low. Severe threat looks rather limited on
Monday but some of the storms will be capable of producing some
marginally severe hail.

A much cooler airmass will filter in to the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Still could see a few showers linger across
northern counties on Tuesday, otherwise a dry forecast is
expected through the end of the week. Tuesday will be mostly
cloudy, with highs only topping out in the lower and middle 60s
for most of the area. Clearing skies are expected Tuesday night
with temepratures falling into the mid 40s by daybreak Wednesday.
Dry and warmer weather returns for the end of the week with near
seasonal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  57  78  48  63 /  30  40  30  50  20
San Angelo  88  56  82  51  64 /  20  20  10  20  10
Junction  89  55  84  53  67 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24




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