Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 060043
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
843 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT FORCED BY THE OUTER EDGES OF THE SUB-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS THE APPROACH THE ST. GEORGE ISLAND AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE NORTH FLORIDA COASTLINE COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL,
CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIED
DOWN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EXCEPT AT VLD WHERE BRIEF MVFR CIGS & VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTED BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TLH AS WELL, BUT LEFT OUT OF
THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [347 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH, BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE CWA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF RIDGING
BETWEEN TWO LOWS, ONE IN THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT ON MONDAY TO 30 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL YIELD FAIRLY HIGH
DISPERSION VALUES AROUND 90 OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND RIVERS RECEDING,
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  88  61  89  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   66  83  64  82  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
DOTHAN        60  85  60  86  63 /  10   0   0   0  10
ALBANY        60  85  58  86  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  87  61  87  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    63  88  60  87  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  67  83  65  84  66 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...WESTON


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