Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 020452
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

Dew points were slowly increasing across central and eastern Kansas.
Dew points around 50 vary across the CWA with a nose of 55 degree
plus dew points extending north across far eastern Kansas with LWC
now up to 56 degrees at 19Z. Latest meso analysis shows an MCV
moving across southern Missouri with SBCAPE around 1500 J/KG in far
east central and southeast Kansas at 19Z. Cap remains in place
across much of the CWA extending into northwest Kansas. Cold front
extended from east central South Dakota into northeast Colorado
while the dryline extended from southwest Nebraska to the east of
Liberal.

Short range high resolution models suggest that convection will
develop in the 23Z to 00Z time period from northeast Nebraska
southwest to near Phillipsburg and Hays. Storms congeal into a line
and move into north central Kansas after 7 PM and increasing across
the western counties through 10 PM, then becoming widespread across
the CWA as the upper trough and front move through. 850 mb moisture
transport increases along the 850 mb front tonight as it moves
through. Low level jet increasing to 40 to 50 kts from the south
will veer to the southwest gradually through the night focusing
potential for locally heavy rainfall across northeast and east
central Kansas in the 06Z-12Z time frame. Have increased QPF to
around 0.90 inches in east central Kansas. Shear around 35 to 40 kts
and instability around 1200 J/kg along with cooling aloft with the
wave moving through will yield environment for some storms to be
severe this evening across north central and northeast Kansas with
wind and hail the main hazards as the line moves through. Overnight
wave moving through the Rockies will move out into the Plains
developing precipitation in the wake of the front and also
increasing ascent across eastern Kansas. The front is expected to
move south of the CWA into southeast Kansas Thursday morning then
stalling out from southern Kansas and southern Missouri atmosphere
across east central and southeast Kansas becomes capped during the
day. 850 mb front will be near the southern CWA and could see some
development in the late afternoon when a weak wave moves through and
cap erodes in the 22Z-00Z period. Temperatures will be about 15
degrees cooler on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

The surface front should be located somewhere across southeast
Kansas by late Thursday with greatest risk for surface based
convection expected to remain near or just southeast of the CWA
after 00z. However the next upper wave will emerge across the
region Thu night and will act to produce another area of rain
across most of the state. Modest forcing and dry air will act to
limit amounts but most areas should see a least a period of light
rain showers overnight into early Friday before skies clear and
high pressure moves into the area for the weekend.

The weekend looks great with highs in the 60s and 70s and low
humidities. South winds will increase by late day Saturday so
could pose fire weather issues again. The dry weather should
persist through Sunday as Gulf of Mexico moisture will be slow to
return to the area this weekend. The forecast weather pattern by
next Monday and Tuesday will feature a longwave trough across the
Rockies with sfc low pressure somewhere across the Plains. Latest
GFS is more progressive with an initial wave Monday which forces a
sfc low into eastern Nebraska and dryline across Kansas while the
ECMWF is much slower and features a low across eastern CO with a
warm front draped across the state. Both show additional energy
moving into the Plains which could set the stage for bouts of
thunderstorms into mid week. The details such as timing and
location of features remain uncertain as does the associated
severe weather risk but it would appear that next week could be
active across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

Again only made small adjustments to TAFs with front and incoming
rain/storms around the 07-08z hour and continuing overnight. Skies
become VFR for Thursday with a late day cloud deck possible but
too late in the forecast period for this issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...67





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