Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 241637
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241700Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM AND PARTS OF FAR SW TX...

CHANGES TO OUTLOOK INCLUDE REMOVING PARTS OF W TX FROM ELEVATED
AREA. WETTING RAINS FROM MAF TO ABI TO SPS THIS MORNING WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE FIRE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. MAINTAINED MUCH OF CRITICAL AREA ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR
SWRN TX...ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS YIELD LESS CERTAINTY THAT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WILL BE MET...PARTICULARLY OVER ECNTRL NM.
RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT VERTICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
CONCERNS ABOUT UNFAVORABLE FUELS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS ERN/SERN
NM...AND SUBSTANTIAL GREEN-UP WILL LIMIT GREATER FIRE POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY OVER A LARGE PART OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND TX
PANHANDLE. NEVERTHELESS...AREAS OF STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BENEATH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL
ALLOW FOR AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS TO BE MET OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND SW TX...ESPECIALLY WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

..COOK/LEITMAN.. 04/24/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN COMPONENT OF MULTI-STREAM
PATTERN COVERING THE CONUS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY. A WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WITH A SFC CYCLONE ADVANCING FROM THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A BROAD MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER PARTS OF THE NERN CONUS.

...PORTIONS OF NM...WRN TX...FAR WRN OK...FAR SWRN KS...
A BROAD AREA OF SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH /LOCALLY STRONGER/
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES OF 10-20 PERCENT TO
ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
EXTEND EWD TO A DRYLINE TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE SFC CYCLONE. THE
DRYLINE WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL WIND
SPEED MAXIMUM OVERLIES THE REGION AND ENHANCES SFC WINDS WHILE
VERTICAL MIXING DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS.

A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ERN NM AND FAR SWRN TX WHERE RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 12-14 PERCENT WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES BOUNDARY-LAYER
WARMING/DRYING AMIDST THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WINDS. SOME AREAS OF
MOISTER FUELS ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION AND FUEL GREEN-UP
MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK LOCALLY...RENDERING A LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER...FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY
ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA TO MAINTAIN THE CRITICAL DESIGNATION.

SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. E/NE OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AREAS OF CRITICAL
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...FUEL
GREEN-UP WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION AND RELATED FUEL MOISTENING
PREVENT CRITICAL DESIGNATION. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW RH...STRONG
WINDS...AND AREAS OF ONGOING LONG-TERM DROUGHT...ELEVATED
DESIGNATION CONTINUES. WEAKER DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING
S OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AND THE INFLUX OF RELATIVELY COOLER AIR TO
THE W OF THE CRITICAL AREA...ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR
CRITICAL RH IN THESE REGIONS.

...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW RELATED TO
THE NERN CONUS CYCLONE...WLY TO WNWLY SFC WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING PEAK HEATING AS
DEEP DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF ERN PA INTO NJ
WHERE RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE
50S MAY LESSEN THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. RELATIVELY WARMER AIR --
I.E. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE 60S -- WILL COVER
AREAS FARTHER S...THOUGH WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
THE LACK OF OVERLAP OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS...COUPLED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS AND RELATED FUEL MOISTENING IN MANY LOCATIONS...ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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