Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 061034
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
634 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 06/06
UTC: PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE/CAP
INVERSION EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGHOUT THE SHORT INTO THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE NOT ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DRY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS ENTERED THE
FRENCH/WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE THIS AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A
RESULT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO PREVAIL.

LATER DURING THE WEEKEND THE MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE EROSION OF THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN...WITH PREVAILING EASTERLIES TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN PWAT AMOUNTS AS TRADE WINDS CAP LIFTS TO AROUND 700
LATER ON SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD-VIRGIN
ISLES INTO PUERTO RICO.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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