Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXSA20 KWBC 051304
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
903 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM MAY 05 AT 00UTC): NORTH OVER THE
CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A HIGH OVER CENTRAL JUNGLE OF PERU
ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA/EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC. EAST OF THIS AXIS A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG
20S 28W...10S 35W...NORTH COAST OF BRASIL TO NORTHERN
PARA/RORAIMA. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
RONDONIA-SOUTHERN AMAZONAS IN WESTERN BRASIL-NORTHERN BOLIVIA AND
PORTIONS OF PERU. THE TROUGH...MEANWHILE...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO AMAPA/NORTHERN PARA.

THE 250 HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR JET FORMING AT 63S
62W EXITING AT 53S 64W. IT REFORMS AT 44S 61W EXITING AT 44S 51W.
THE NORTHERN POLAR FORMS AT 41S 93W ALONG 43S 84W...EXITING AT 41S
74W. IT REFORMS AT 40S 66W ALONG 38S 58W...EXITING AT 36S 50W. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET FORMS AT 21S 97W ALONG 26S 82W...28S 64W...26S
49W...EXITING AT 29S 39W.

AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM EXTENDS FROM 40S
95W...ALONG 30S 95W...TO 16S 104W. A RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDS
ALONG 24S 85W...35S 87W...50S 89W...60S 75W...TO THE
BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS...A BROAD TROUGH
ENVELOPS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS IT EXTENDS BETWEEN 70W-30W AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 25S. BEST INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...HOWEVER...IS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN PATAGONIA-THE
MALVINAS/FALKLAND ISLANDS.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1021 HPA HIGH AT 53S 83W. A 1023 HPA
HIGH CENTERS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 37S 83W. OVER THE ATLANTIC...A
WEAKENING OCCLUDED 1002 HPA LOW CENTERS AT 50S 58W. A 1002 HPA LOW
AT 46S 51W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG 42S 53W...40S 55W...41S 60W...45S
67W...A 1014 HPA LOW AT 48S 74W...46S 76W...46S 82W. A 1017 HPA
HIGH CENTERS AT 30S 53W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 47S 33W INTO
1002 HPA LOW AT 42S 37W...33S 38W...24S 45W...22S 53W...15S
59W...12S 72W. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG THIS FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN BRASIL...NORTHERN BOLIVIA.

CHARPENTIER...DMC (CHILE)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
UNSIHUAY...UNALM (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$




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