Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 180656
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

VALID 12Z SAT APR 18 2015 - 12Z MON APR 20 2015

...EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
AND ACROSS THE LOWER-MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO END TONIGHT..

A STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE
PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEKEND OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOWER 48. A FAVORABLE COMBINATION
OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES,
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN PLACE AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY BENEATH THIS STORM SYSTEM ARE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING, BUT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT, SNOW
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE MADE FOR
SATURATED SOILS WHICH WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RATES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER 80S FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES, BUT MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED HERE FOR SUNDAY ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
REFERENCED ABOVE. THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD
TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER FAIR SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT.

OTTO


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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