National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 101118
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
415 AM MST WED FEB 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...SOME STRATUS DEVELOPED OVER LINCOLN COUNTY OVER NIGHT
AND DRIFTED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY.  LIMON
HAS STAYED IN THE CLEAR...BUT OBSERVATIONS IN EL PASO COUNTY SHOW
SOME FREEZING FOG.  SATELLITE PICTURES ALSO SHOW SOME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER ROUTT COUNTY TO OUR WEST.  OBSERVATION
FROM STEAMBOAT SPRINGS SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW FALLING.  CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY.  GIVEN THAT LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING TO
OUR WEST...WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOW POPS OVER OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
THROUGH TODAY.  WITH NO STRONG UPPER SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SPOTTY AND SOMEWHAT WEAK
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOWFALL.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BE EASY TO
REACH.  THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN KEEPING SKIES
SUNNY AND WARMING THE AIRMASS.  THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN DRY WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THU AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU THU NIGHT HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES ARE ONLY IN THE 4-5 C/M RANGE SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SUDE DESPITE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.  OVER NERN CO
MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY LATE IN THE AFTN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER NO PCPN EXPECTED.  HIGHS ON THU
SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RISE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW COVER OVER SERN ELBERT AND
SWRN LINCOLN COUNTIES COULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE
IN THOSE AREAS.  NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FROM FRI
THRU SAT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON SAT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE AND IMPROVING LAPSE RATES ON SAT
IN THE MTNS SO SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHC OF OROGRAPHIC SNOWS.  OVER
NERN CO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH WARMER
TEMPS AS READINGS RISE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS STILL SHOW A POSSIBLE FNT AFFECTING NERN CO BY AFTN OR EVENING.
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THIS FNT TEMPS COULD END UP BEING COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CO-NE BORDER WHERE READINGS
MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.  MEANWHILE STILL COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC
OF SOME LIGHT PCPN SAT NIGHT AS FNT BACK DOORS ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
FRONT RANGE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING.

FOR SUN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING A DRIER AIRMASS THUS SNOW CHANCES IN THE MTNS
SHOULD DECREASE.  OVER NERN CO LATEST GFS SHOWS FNT WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS.  THUS HIGHS ON SUN MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AS
READINGS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S OVER THE PLAINS.  FOR MON INTO
NIGHT LATEST GFS SHOWS A STRONGER SYSTEM IN NW FLOW AFFECTING AREA
WHILE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE NO SUCH FEATURE.  HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT
WHICH SOLUTION IS RIGHT SO SEE NO REASON TO ALTER MON
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

KDRBY/RPK
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
