RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000 FXUS63 KDDC 240851 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 251 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... RADAR LOOP SHOWING A BAND OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CONTINUING OVER STAFFORD/PRATT AND BARBER COUNTIES AT 08Z. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SO WILL TAKE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR EAST CWA THIS MORNING. THE 00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO HEAD OFF TO THE EAST AT A DECENT CLIP. SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SPREADS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIX OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS 30-35 KNOT WINDS AT 850 ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE GFS BREAKS OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY AROUND HAYS AND NORTH BUT MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE.THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. THIS SURGE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR TO WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY. DAYS 3-7... THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AND SUNNY, DRY WEATHER) WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THU AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS ON FRI. FRI WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. H85 TEMPS AROUND +13C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF SW KANSAS ON FRI SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A FAIRLY NICE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD SHORT CIRCUIT THIS IDEA IS LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT. WHILE CLOUD/FOG IS POSSIBLE, AM GOING TO STICK WITH THE GOING FORECAST. ON SAT, THE RIDGE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROF DIVES TOWARD THE DESERT SW. A COOL FRONT BACKS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SAT, SO ASSUMING THE TIMING IS CORRECT, SAT WILL BE COOLER. THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AND THINGS BEGIN TO GET MORE INTERESTING. THE EC (AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE GFS) SHOW A CUTOFF LOW FORMING IN THE 4-CORNERS AREA WHICH SLOWLY COMES OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK 4-CORNERS LOW AND A MUCH DEEPER LOW (SOME 20DM LOWER) OVER THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS WHICH EVENTUALLY FEEDS DOWN INTO THE SW TROF AS IT KICKS OUT. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS, FRANKLY ABSURD (IT IS CERTAINLY PHYSICALLY UNLIKELY) AND IS THUS DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE MORE REASONABLE EC SOLUTION. THIS MEANS SOMEWHAT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A PRECIP EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT`S MORE, ALL MODELS SHOW AN OPENING FOR COLD, CANADIAN AIR TO COME SOUTH IN WEEK 2. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE COLD AIR IN THE MODELS, AM FEELING CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LOWERING TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. AM NOT SO CONFIDENT IN PRECIP BUT THINK THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE NOW TO INSERT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO GET US STARTED. -WRIGHT && AVIATION... VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS BETWEEN 040 AND 080 WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TODAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER 24/21Z. -WRIGHT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 50 25 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 48 23 49 23 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 52 24 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 52 24 49 25 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 47 26 49 24 / 0 0 0 0 P28 53 28 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN02/34
