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000 FXUS63 KAPX 250926 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 426 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 426 AM/ AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THANKSGIVING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TURN COOLER OVER THE HOLIDAY...AND THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND...IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW. SMD && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 426 AM/...TODAY CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS SRN MI...LIFTING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PLAINS STORM SYSTEM. THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...WILL LIFT INTO ERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. AT UPPER LEVELS...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DIGS DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. 850MB TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW ABV FREEZING LAYER TROUGH AROUND 5K FT. SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABUNDANT MSTR ACROSS THE NRN LAKES TODAY...WITH 850MB DEW PTS AROUND 0/+1C WITH 850/300MB RH GREATER THAN 80PCT. SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE COLUMN THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NRN LAKES. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS OVER NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING THE AFTN AS THE STORM CENTER PUSHES NORTH. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE WARM 850MB TEMPS TO +2C SURGES INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER WILL KEEP CURRENT TREND BTWN 45 AND 50 DEGREES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS STAYED MILD IN THE 40S. SWR && .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 426 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND TONIGHT...SFC LOW REMAINING ANCHORED OVER NRN MI AROUND THE STRAITS AND ERN UPPER. 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND BEGINS TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AS 500MB LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND +2C TO ARND 0C/-1C BY 12Z THURSDAY. COLDEST 850MB AIR ARND -6/-8C DROPPING WEST AND SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABV FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 4500 FT IN THE EVENING... FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT OVER THE WRN LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY AS COOLER 850MB AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. OVERALL SFC BASED WARM LAYER SUFFICIENT FOR ALL RAIN PCPN TYPE AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOWING WK OMEGA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD...WITH AN UP TICK TOWARD MORNING DUE TO WEAK LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OF 100KT 300MB JET (MAINLY OVER THE ERN LAKES). OVERALL LIKELY CHC OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING SLOWLY IN THE UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. THURSDAY...STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NRN MI AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT UNTIL THE EVENING. UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB LOW PUSHING INTO OHIO/ERN LAKES REGION. COOLER 850MB AIR TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW PUSH INTO THE REGION...FALLING FROM AROUND -1C IN THE MORNING TO AROUND -3C BY THE EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABV FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SFC THRU 3500 FT IN THE MORNING...FALLING TO AROUND 2K FEET BY THE EVENING...QUICKEST DROP OVER THE WRN LAKES. ONCE AGAIN SFC BASED WARM LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN PCPN TYPE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE DAY FOR HIGH POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TRICKY WITH RAIN...CLOUDS AND COOLING 850MB TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S FALLING INTO THE 30S BY THE EVENING. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOTS HAPPENING DURING THIS PERIOD. COOLING 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE...FALLING TO AROUND -4C OVER MUCH OF NRN MI THROUGH THE PD. HOWEVER COLDEST 850MB AIR TO REMAIN WEST OVER WISCONSIN AND SOUTH TO TENNESSEE. SFC STORM SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER NRN MI SINCE WEDNESDAY TO FINALLY EXIT EAST TWD THE NRN ATLANTIC BY 12Z FRIDAY...WHILE PLAINS SFC RIDGE NUDGES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST TOWARD MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TWD THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SFC BASED WARM LAYER DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF NRN MI COOL ENOUGH FOR TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH COLDEST 850 MB AIR STRUGGLING TO REACH THE ERN LAKES. LAKE ENHANCEMENTS BECOME AN INFLUENCE DURING THE PD...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH WHILE 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -4C AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS LINGER AROUND 8C. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AFT 06Z FRIDAY...WITH BULK OF LOW LEVEL MSTR TRAPPED BELOW -10C BY 12Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH MSTR SHOULD REMAIN IN MID LVLS TO KEEP PCPN FROM TRUING TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. LOWS FALLING INTO SEASONAL RANGE IN THE 20S. FRIDAY...LAKE ENHANCEMENTS THE MAIN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C OVER NRN LOWER AND -7C/-8C OVER ERN UPPER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SFC TROUGHING TO LINGER OVER THE NRN LAKES EARLY FRIDAY...BEHIND EASTWARD EXITING STORM SYSTEM WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PUSHES TWD NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MSTR ACROSS NRN MI WITH DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 600MB EARLY ...BEFORE MSTR INCREASES BY THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING BEST OMEGA AND OVER LAKE INSTABILITY LOCATED ACRS ERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION...WHERE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE COOLER NEAR -8C AND WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES...MARGINAL LIFT OVER MUCH OF NRN LWR MI THROUGH THE PD. WINDS NORTH IN THE MORNING TURNING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH MODELS HINTING AT NICE LAKE BAND FORMING ARND THE STRAITS AND NRN LAKE HURON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHC WORDING MOST OF THE CWA AT THE MOMENT...HIGHEST POPS IN EAST UPPER AND THE STRAITS WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH DATA...WITH AN 850MB TEMP AROUND -5C AND NRN LAKE MI WATER TEMP AROUND 8C...COULD SEE SNOW MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE AND POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR OF NRN LWR BUT LESS LIKELY. WILL MIX RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...WHILE KEEPING INTERIOR SECTIONS ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OF NRN LWR. SWR && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 426 AM/ WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY OVER LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO NRN MI. WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NRN LAKES...WITH SCA POSSIBLE. RAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF NRN MI NEARSHORE WATERS...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN MI THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE STRAITS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE TRENDING TOWARD SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SWR && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1230 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TONIGHT AT TVC AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LIFR TO IFR CIGS AT PLN AND APN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AJS && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. LH...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$
