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000 FXUS63 KAPX 241744 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1244 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 410 AM/ A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS INTO THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ADDITIONAL RAIN SWEEPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER OVER THE HOLIDAY...CLOSER TO LEVELS MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY. SMD && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1114 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUD SHIELD OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN IOWA IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS, BUT ON THE WHOLE IT WILL BE OVERCAST FOR N MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES SEEM IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS EXPECTED. LOWERED THE WIND TODAY AS THE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE STRONG INVERSION AROUND 875MB. JSL && .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 410 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MSTR RETURN QUICKEST OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 80PCT AROUND 06Z WED... BEFORE OVERSPREADING ALL OF NRN MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ALL RAIN EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABV FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 4K FEET OVER EAST UPPER AND TO 5K FT OVER NRN LWR. WILL KEEP CURRENT POP TREND OF CATEGORICAL OVER THE SRN POTIONS OF THE CWA...TRAILING TO SCATTERED OVER ERN UPPER. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...STORM SYSTEM BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING STRETCHED THURSDAY AFTN AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO LIFT NORTH TWD HUDSON BAY. DIGGING 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US...DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY BEFORE SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN TO KEEP THE COLDEST 850MB AIR WEST AND SOUTH OF NRN MI THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABV FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SFC TO NEARLY 6K FEET WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 3K FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DROPPING TO 2500 FT THURSDAY AFTN (HOWEVER REMAINING AROUND 4K FT OVER ERN UPPER). WILL CONTINUE PCPN TYPE ALL RAIN ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE PD. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING ABUNDANT MSTR TO LINGER OVER NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY TRIMMING BACK TO SCATTERED OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...COOLEST THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 40S AS 850MB BEGIN TO COOL. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST 850MB AIR EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO THE CWA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MI WEAKENS AND EXIT INTO QUEBEC WHILE THE 500MB LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABV FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 1900 FEET OVER MUCH OF NRN MI. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES SHOWING SHALLOW WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...SO WILL TREND PCPN TYPE TWD MIXED RAIN/SNOW MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION ONLY SCATTERED WORDING MOST OF THE CWA WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRYING AS 850/300MB RH DROPS TO AROUND 50 PCT. HIGHEST POPS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AS LAKE EFFECTS BECOME AN INFLUENCE. 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -5C WITH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C...WHILE SFC TO 850MB WINDS TURN NORTH. FRIDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECTS THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER LIMITED AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS 850/300MB RH REMAINS AROUND 50 PCT. OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -5C THROUGH THE AFTN...BEFORE WARMING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH AS THE GREAT LAKES BECOME A BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ON THE MID ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TWD THE WRN LAKES FROM THE PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW AREA OF WARM AIR LINGERING AT THE SFC TO AROUND 1900 FT. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...AS HIGH PRESSURE RESETTLES INTO THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM. CHILLY HIGHS BUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS. SWR && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 410 AM/ WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. HOWEVER SE WINDS TO PICK UP BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...AS THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO NRN MI. CLOUDY BUT DRY WX TODAY BEFORE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SWR && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1239 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS IN THE NEAR TERM, THE MAIN THING IS THE IFR AND LIFR CIGS, WHICH ARE GETTING OUT OF HERE ANYTIME SOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS, SO HAVE SOME TEMPO CONDITIONS, BUT THE OVERALL FLAVOR WILL BE AT LEAST IFR. VSBY ARE SLOWLY COMING UP, BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE THE MAX, BEFORE THEY HEAD BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY WITH THESE CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z, BUT SOME RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. JSL && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. LH...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$
