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000 FXUS61 KBUF 251201 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 701 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN THANKSGIVING NIGHT WHICH MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING SOME PTCHY LIGHT RAIN MOVING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EATERN LK ONTARIO COUNTIES WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PTNS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER. WILL CARRY LOW CHC LIGHT RAIN EAST OF LK ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PTHY DRIZZLE/SLT CHC R- OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL LKS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO NORTH OF LK HURON. MEANWHILE, MID LVL SHORT WAVE ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON LIFTS NE INTO WESTERN NY WITH SFC COLD FRONT MOVING TO VCNTY OF THE GENESEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THREAT OF SHWRS TO LKLY RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO CONTINUE ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TONIGHT, THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES FROM TO CENTRAL NY LTR THIS EVENING AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY 12Z THU WHILE THE MID LVL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TO NORTH OF THE ST LAW VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP CHC SHWRS THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ALNG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION OF THE MID LVL SHORT WAVE. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ARND TO KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS TNGT SHLD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO LOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT DRY AS A DECENT DRY SLOT WILL WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE DRY START TO THANKSGIVING DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS OUT RATHER QUICKLY. COLDER AIR WILL BE CREEPING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME... ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES WOULD EASILY SUPPORT ALL RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL CHANGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LIKELY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX HERE WITH EVEN A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER SPOTS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIST DURING FRIDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IN A COOLING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COASTAL SYSTEM MAY BE PULLING OUT TOO FAST TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE SNOWS... THOUGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT ACROSS THE TUG HILL FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS NOTED ABOVE...MODELS CLEARING SYSTEM OUT QUICKLY BY SATURDAY... WITH GFS SHOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER AREA SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER AND HOLDING IT OFF UNTIL SAT NT. IN ANY CASE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS SE OF THE LAKES...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT EVE SE OF LK ONTARIO. P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON ELEVATIONS BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS. MAINLY DRY ELSEWHERE SAT BUT CHILLY WITH MAXES IN L40S AS 850MB TROF (-5C) SWINGS THROUGH. SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS SOAR TO +5C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NR 50 WITH ANY SUN...ALWAYS A QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT A DECENT DAY NONETHELESS. NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL STATES MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WILL INCR CHC OF SHOWERS HERE MON AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES AND CONTINUE THEM THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD BE QUITE MILD MON AND COLDER TUES. CONFIDENCE LOW IN DETAILS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BUCKLE TROFS AND CLOSE THEM OFF BUT NONE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO YANK ON ANY ARCTIC AIR AND IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE ANY WILL...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL START OUT WITH MNLY VFR CIGS WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING EAST OF LK ONTARIO WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER EAST OF KJHW, TWD KELZ FOR A FEW HRS THIS MRNG. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS INTO WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HRS OF SHWRS FRM ARND 17Z-21Z. THE SHWRS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH PTNS OF THE FINGER LKS TIL AFT 20Z OR SO BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR TIL THIS EVNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MNLY MVFR TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS TWD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS IN THE AFTERNOON WEST. SHWRS LKLY THU NGT MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUF WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR/IFR FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS MAINLY E-SE OF THE LAKES. SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACH LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR TJHE MKOST PART SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ERIE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT ON LAKE ERIE. A BETTER THREAT FOR MARINE FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PASSES UP TO OUR EAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO BRISK NORTHWESTERLIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. && .CLIMATE... STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY. WE ARE ALREADY OVER TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND NOV 8 ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL BE LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT ROC. THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ARE DEC 3 1899 AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THOSE DATES AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE EITHER BUFFALO OR ROCHESTER LAST SAW MEASURABLE SNOW. THROUGH NOV 24, BUFFALO HAS GONE 231 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR SINCE APRIL 7, 2009. THIS IS THE 5TH LONGEST STRETCH IN 125 YEARS OF RECORDS. THE RECORD IS 277 DAYS SET BACK IN 1946. ROCHESTER IS ALSO AT 231 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR THE 5TH LONGEST STRETCH THERE. THE RECORD IS 260 DAYS SET BACK IN 1952. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...JJP SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...SFM AVIATION...JJP MARINE...TMA CLIMATE...TMA/SFM
