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000 FXUS61 KBUF 240816 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 316 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY QUITE MILD. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN AND WET SNOW FROM THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACING OUT SO FAR. ONE AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DE-AMPLIFYING WITH TIME. THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL REACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 18Z THEN QUICKLY EXIT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE DIVIDED INTO TWO SEPARATE FORCING MECHANISMS. THE FIRST IS ALIGNED WITH THE DPVA REGION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIFT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND REACH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH NORTHEAST EXTENT AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO A DRIER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE SECOND AREA OF FORCING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E CONTENT AIR NOTED WITH THE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL PA. THIS TOO WILL WEAKEN WITH NORTHERN EXTENT...BUT SHOULD STILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT TODAY...WITH JUST A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES MAY GET A LITTLE MORE...BUT STILL LESS THAN A TENTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DESPITE THE CLOUDS... 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND +6C WILL STILL SUPPORT LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. TONIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LONG GONE...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE EVENING TO START OFF BKN-OVC EVERYWHERE WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS AROUND. OVERNIGHT INCREASING SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY ERODE THE STRATUS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. THIS WOULD HAPPEN FIRST ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO THE ROCHESTER AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO INDICATE THIS IN GRIDS/ZFP. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG TOUGH WITHOUT THE AID OF DOWNSLOPING. CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN TO THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LIMITED ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH ONLY A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK MILD WEDNESDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD GET A BIT WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE REALIZED. THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING THEREAFTER. A POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OR EASTERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...BUT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. ONE MAJOR ONE IS THE SHIFT WESTWARD IN ALL THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A DECENT PRECIP SHIELD FOR THURS NT AND FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND EC TAKE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ACROSS ERN OHIO AND PA TO NJ...WHICH WOULD PLACE OUR AREA UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE SWINGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH COLDER AIR (-6 TO -8C 850 MB) ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MILDER AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST (-1 TO -2C/850) ACROSS LK ONTARIO INTO MUCH OF OUR AREA. THIS WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR LOW ELEVATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND A MIX OF WET SNOW THREAT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVS TOWARD THE PA LINE. POTENTIAL QPF COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH. THE ECMWF IS A GOOD 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH ALL THIS...WITH BULK OF HEAVIEST QPF IN 00Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...RAIN EVENTUALLY ENDING AS WET SNOW OR A MIX...GFS WOULD BE LATER...RAIN LATER FRI INTO FRI NT AND MIXING AS IT ENDS LATE FRI NT/SAT AM. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THURS NT THROUGH FRI NT. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF HEAVY SNOW IN PA/WVA AND RAIN IN MUCH OF NY STATE...BUT STAY TUNED. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN WRAPAROUND ON SAT...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS...LIKELY SE OF LAKES IN UPSLOPE. DRIER WX FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASBL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PASSING OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING INTO THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THIS FEED OF MOISTURE...IT WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AVIATION. AS SUCH...HAVE JUST CONTINUED WITH A MENTION OF VCSH TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING RATHER WEAK...THIS WILL HELP TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...AVIATION INTERESTS CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. && .MARINE... NO MARINE FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ON THE LOWER LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE ACTION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACH LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR MARINE FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PASSES UP TO OUR EAST. && .CLIMATE... STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY. WE ARE ALREADY OVER TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND NOV 8 ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL BE LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT ROC. THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ARE DEC 3 1899 AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THOSE DATES AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE EITHER BUFFALO OR ROCHESTER LAST SAW MEASURABLE SNOW. THROUGH YESTERDAY, BUFFALO HAS GONE 230 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR SINCE APRIL 7, 2009. THIS IS THE 5TH LONGEST STRETCH IN 125 YEARS OF RECORDS. THE RECORD IS 245 DAYS SET BACK IN 1948. ROCHESTER IS ALSO AT 230 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR THE 6TH LONGEST STRETCH THERE. THE RECORD IS 260 DAYS SET BACK IN 1952. IF WE REMAIN SNOW FREE THROUGH THANKSGIVING, BOTH ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO WILL END UP WITH THE THIRD LONGEST STRETCH OF SNOW FREE DAYS ON RECORD. STAY TUNED. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SFM AVIATION...JJR MARINE...TMA CLIMATE...SFM/TMA
