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000 FXUS61 KBUF 240430 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1130 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PROVIDED THE FINE WEATHER TO OUR REGION TODAY WILL RETREAT INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND IT WILL STAY QUITE MILD. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN AND WET SNOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPDATE AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL SATELLITE DISPLAYS SHOW A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA...WITH BOTH THIS SHORTWAVE AND AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THIS MOISTURE...IT IS ALSO GENERATING A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS OVER NW PA INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED HERE AND THERE. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING NORTHEAST CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN EARLIER INDICATED...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NOW BRINGING THESE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND MIDDLE/LOWER GENESEE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO UPPED POPS A BIT FROM CONTINUITY BASED ON RADAR RETURNS...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THESE CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE OWING TO THE RATHER LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP SO FAR...AND THE FACT THAT THIS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR RATHER DRY AIRMASS. HAVE ALSO UPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 2-3 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS BASED ON CURRENTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP A BIT MORE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCO FOLLOWS BELOW... A NARROW BAND OF SUNNY SKIES ARE THE REFLECTION OF A BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDES THROUGH THE RIDGE. WHEREAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FADES DURING TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING RETURNS. WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS FROM ABOUT ROUTE 20A SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NY TO OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF NORTHWARD EXCLUDING THE COUNTIES ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO EXCLUDING MOST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. NAM12 QPF OFFERS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR THE TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT HOLD UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME SPOTS AT FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LATER TO COVER THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD TIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD. ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE... WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP BEING RAIN FREE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING THEREAFTER. A POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OR EASTERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...BUT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. ONE MAJOR ONE IS THE SHIFT WESTWARD IN ALL THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A DECENT PRECIP SHIELD FOR THURS NT AND FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND EC TAKE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ACROSS ERN OHIO AND PA TO NJ...WHICH WOULD PLACE OUR AREA UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE SWINGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH COLDER AIR (-6 TO -8C 850 MB) ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MILDER AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST (-1 TO -2C/850) ACROSS LK ONTARIO INTO MUCH OF OUR AREA. THIS WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR LOW ELEVATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND A MIX OF WET SNOW THREAT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVS TOWARD THE PA LINE. POTENTIAL QPF COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH. THE ECMWF IS A GOOD 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH ALL THIS...WITH BULK OF HEAVIEST QPF IN 00Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...RAIN EVENTUALLY ENDING AS WET SNOW OR A MIX...GFS WOULD BE LATER...RAIN LATER FRI INTO FRI NT AND MIXING AS IT ENDS LATE FRI NT/SAT AM. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THURS NT THROUGH FRI NT. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF HEAVY SNOW IN PA/WVA AND RAIN IN MUCH OF NY STATE...BUT STAY TUNED. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN WRAPAROUND ON SAT...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS...LIKELY SE OF LAKES IN UPSLOPE. DRIER WX FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASBL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PASSING OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING INTO THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THIS FEED OF MOISTURE...IT WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AVIATION. AS SUCH...HAVE JUST CONTINUED WITH A MENTION OF VCSH TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING RATHER WEAK...THIS WILL HELP TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...AVIATION INTERESTS CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION WELL OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT THREAT FOR MARINE FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PASSES UP TO OUR EAST. && .CLIMATE... STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY. WE ARE ALREADY OVER TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND NOV 8 ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL BE LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT ROC. THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ARE DEC 3 1899 AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THOSE DATES AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE EITHER BUFFALO OR ROCHESTER LAST SAW MEASURABLE SNOW. THROUGH TODAY, BUFFALO HAS GONE 229 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR SINCE APRIL 7, 2009. THIS IS THE 6TH LONGEST STRETCH IN 125 YEARS OF RECORDS. THE RECORD IS 245 DAYS SET BACK IN 1948. ROCHESTER IS ALSO AT 229 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR THE 7TH LONGEST STRETCH THERE. THE RECORD IS 260 DAYS SET BACK IN 1952. IF WE REMAIN SNOW FREE THROUGH THANKSGIVING, BOTH ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO WILL END UP WITH THE THIRD LONGEST STRETCH OF SNOW FREE DAYS ON RECORD. STAY TUNED. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SFM NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH SHORT TERM...SFM LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SFM AVIATION...JJR MARINE...SFM/WCH CLIMATE...SFM
