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000 FXUS61 KCLE 251200 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 700 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND INTO NW PA THIS MORNING. APPEARS A BULK OF THIS RAIN WILL BE EAST OF A CLE TO CANTON LINE BY SUNRISE. SO WITH THIS SAID HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EAST OF THIS LINE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ERIE AREA WITH THE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING WIND. MAY ONLY SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO FOR THIS AREA. IT THEN LOOKS AS IF THE AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH NW OHIO A BIT CLOSER AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT MAY PUSH A FEW MORE SHOWERS CLOSE TO THIS AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NOT ALL THAT MUCH LIFT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. COULD STILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PATCHES OF RAIN SO HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH THE DRIZZLE. IN ANY EVENT RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT TO SEE THESE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INCREASING COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY EVENING POINT TO CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN. HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. DOESNT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE WARM GROUND BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE A DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH EXTREME EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN NW PA WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ASSIST WITH ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT CAN NOT RULE OUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BUT WILL LIKELY NEVER SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR 2 ON THE WARM GROUND. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL RECOVER BY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS IN FAIRLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEAR CHICAGO. ALL MODELS SHOWING THIS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAD CHC POPS IN GRIDS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR POPS. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ECMWF AND GFS QUITE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS. GFS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI IN RESPONSE TO STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE ECMWF KEEPS SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THESE DIFFERENCES RESULT IN GFS BRINGING STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION WHILE ECMWF TAKES DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW DIDN/T LEAN IN ANY PARTICULAR DIRECTION GIVEN SUCH DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. CONTINUED WITH LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH UPPER LOW OVER NRN IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE UPPER LOW SWING THROUGH SRN MI. AREA OF CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHWEST OH THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWING SMALL AREA OF DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO WRN OH. MENTIONED CIGS SCT-BKN AT CLE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS PUSH BACK IN FOR AFTN. WESTERN SITES ALREADY EXPERIENCED BRIEF VFR/MVFR IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING SO TREND IS MAINLY MVFR WITH POSS IFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. FOR EASTERN SITES CAK AND YNG IMPROVED CIGS SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING BUT THINKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT SHRA WILL KEEP CIGS LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT POSS LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHER ITEMS IN TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS. MENTIONED HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ALL LOCATIONS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN BACK TO WEST FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WHEN GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST. STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES DURING THIS TIME OVER THE LAKE BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR HEADLINES...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY CAN SEE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT THEN. SMALL CRAFT POSSIBLY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STILL POSSIBILITY OF GALE WARNING BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...ABE MARINE...ABE
