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000 FXUS61 KCLE 240906 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 406 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST. I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. QUESTION FOR TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NW OHIO. AS EXPECTED...FOG AND STRATUS IS FILLING BACK IN THOUGH. WILL MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... IF IT GETS WIDESPREAD/DENSE ENOUGH IT MAY REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY... MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME CLEARING. MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW THIN SPOTS AND HOLES... GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR I WILL BET ON CLOUDS TO WIN OUT TODAY. AREAS THAT SEE EARLY MORNING CLEARING WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS RADIATE DOWN WHICH MAY LEAD TO HARD TIME RECOVERING. OF COURSE IF WE SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY TEMPS WILL GET A BOOST. I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE WARM OPTION GIVEN THE WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS BUT WILL NOT GO TOO MUCH ABOVE MAX TEMP MOS GUIDANCE SINCE I THINK IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NEXT SHORT WAVE IS COMING QUICK. EXTRAPOLATION PUTS IT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WED MORNING. SOUTHEAST WIND BECOMING SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE WIND INCREASES. WILL PROBABLY NOT GET TOO WORDY IN THE TEXT FORECAST BUT MAY TRY TO SHOW AN EARLY DROP AND THEN STEADY OR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE HOURLY TEMPS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REACH NW OHIO BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOW LEVEL JET AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES BUT WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS FOR NOW. SHOWERS SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME INDICATION THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT WILL NOT TRY AND TIME THE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT. THE SECOND...AND STRONGER...SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THE DAY COULD ACTUALLY START OUT HALF WAY DECENT AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW. AGAIN...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME ANYTHING THIS FAR OUT...EXCEPT TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS NW OHIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. AS PER THE CURRENT FORECAST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT CLUTTER THE FORECAST WITH TRANSITION TYPE WORDING. SOME RAIN COULD LINGER ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO COOL DOWN. WILL NOT TAKE A STAB AT FORECASTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC AND EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE GROUND IS WARM THOUGH AND IT WOULD HAVE TO SNOW HARD TO ACCUMULATE MUCH. IN ANY CASE... THERE CERTAINLY IS THE RISK BY FRIDAY MORNING OF AT LEAST A SLUSHY COVERING ON GRASSY SURFACES...MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH PERHAPS BETTER THAN THAT IN THE SNOWBELT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THINGS SHOULD WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE WARMING UP OVER THE AREA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ALSO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEPENDING ON SPEED OF CLEARING. WENT WITH SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OUT WEST. IF THE ENTIRE AREA CLEARS OUT THEN TEMPS COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND COLD FRONT TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. ECMWF SHOWING LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY BOTH MODELS SHOWING CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. GFS MUCH QUICKER IN BRINGING THIS LOW PRESSURE NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION WHILE ECMWF SLOWER BY ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. GIVEN SOME SIMILARITIES BUT STRONG TIMING DIFFERENCES MENTIONED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...LEAVING MVFR AND IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLEARING SKIES HAVE OCCURRED OVER FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BUT VSBYS WERE MVFR OR IFR IN FOG. OVERALL EXPECT CEILING AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON TUESDAY AND WILL SEE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING THEN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR WEATHER SHOULD THEN HOLD THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...KEEPING SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THAT TIME. OUTLOOK... NON-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN MAINLY NON VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR SATURDAY. && .MARINE... EXPECTING QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND TURN SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS FROM NORTHWEST BEHIND LOW PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...RANDEL MARINE...ABE
